Variance Knee Surgery
1. **State the problem:**
We need to estimate the population variance and standard deviation with 98% confidence for two different populations based on samples of size 10.
2. **Given data:**
- Insurers' costs range from $17,627 to $25,462.
- Retail costs range from $40,640 to $558,702.
- Sample size $n=10$ for both.
- Confidence level = 98%.
3. **Estimating sample variance from range:**
A common estimator for variance from just the range (assuming normality) is
$$s^2 \approx \left(\frac{\text{Range}}{d}\right)^2$$
where $d$ is dependent on sample size. Rough approximation uses $d = 4$ for $n=10$ since $E(R) \approx 4 \sigma$ for normal samples of size 10.
4. **Calculate sample variance for insurers:**
Range = $25,462 - 17,627 = 7,835$
Sample variance estimate:
$$s^2 = \left(\frac{7,835}{4}\right)^2 = 1,958.75^2 = 3,837,565.6$$
5. **Calculate sample variance for retail:**
Range = $558,702 - 40,640 = 518,062$
Sample variance estimate:
$$s^2 = \left(\frac{518,062}{4}\right)^2 = 129,515.5^2 = 1.678 \times 10^{10}$$
6. **Chi-square values for 98% confidence and df = n-1 = 9:**
From chi-square table:
$$\chi_{0.01, 9}^2 = 21.666$$
$$\chi_{0.99, 9}^2 = 2.088$$
7. **Confidence interval for variance:**
Formula:
$$\left(\frac{(n-1)s^2}{\chi^2_{\alpha/2}}, \frac{(n-1)s^2}{\chi^2_{1-\alpha/2}}\right)$$
8. **Calculate intervals for insurers:**
Lower bound:
$$\frac{9 \times 3,837,565.6}{21.666} = 1,593,558$$
Upper bound:
$$\frac{9 \times 3,837,565.6}{2.088} = 16,540,282$$
Standard deviation interval:
$$\left(\sqrt{1,593,558}, \sqrt{16,540,282}\right) = (1262, 4067)$$
9. **Calculate intervals for retail:**
Lower bound:
$$\frac{9 \times 1.678 \times 10^{10}}{21.666} = 6.974 \times 10^9$$
Upper bound:
$$\frac{9 \times 1.678 \times 10^{10}}{2.088} = 7.234 \times 10^{10}$$
Standard deviation interval:
$$\left(\sqrt{6.974 \times 10^{9}}, \sqrt{7.234 \times 10^{10}}\right) = (83,532, 268,934)$$
10. **Comparison:**
- Insurers cost variance and standard deviation intervals are much smaller, indicating more cost consistency.
- Retail costs show enormous variance and higher standard deviation, reflecting greater price dispersion.