Probability Twenties
1. The problem asks for the probability that in a group of 7 randomly selected U.S. residents, exactly 4 or 5 are in their twenties, given that 19% of U.S. residents are in their twenties.
2. Let $p = 0.19$ be the probability a single person is in their twenties, and $n = 7$ be the number of people selected.
3. We use the binomial probability formula:
$$P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}$$
where $X$ is the number of people in their twenties.
4. Calculate $P(X=4)$:
$$P(X=4) = \binom{7}{4} (0.19)^4 (0.81)^3$$
Calculate the binomial coefficient:
$$\binom{7}{4} = \frac{7!}{4!3!} = 35$$
5. Calculate $P(X=5)$:
$$P(X=5) = \binom{7}{5} (0.19)^5 (0.81)^2$$
Calculate the binomial coefficient:
$$\binom{7}{5} = \frac{7!}{5!2!} = 21$$
6. Compute each probability:
$$P(X=4) = 35 \times (0.19)^4 \times (0.81)^3 \approx 35 \times 0.001303 \times 0.531441 = 0.0242$$
$$P(X=5) = 21 \times (0.19)^5 \times (0.81)^2 \approx 21 \times 0.000247 \times 0.6561 = 0.0034$$
7. Add the probabilities for 4 and 5:
$$P(4 \text{ or } 5) = P(X=4) + P(X=5) = 0.0242 + 0.0034 = 0.0276$$
8. Rounded to four decimal places, the probability is:
$$\boxed{0.0276}$$