Probability Distributions
1. (a) Two properties of a discrete probability distribution are:
1. Each probability $P(x)$ satisfies $0 \leq P(x) \leq 1$.
2. The sum of all probabilities equals 1, i.e., $\sum P(x) = 1$.
(b) Difference between Bernoulli and Binomial distribution:
- Bernoulli distribution models a single trial with two outcomes (success/failure).
- Binomial distribution models the number of successes in $n$ independent Bernoulli trials.
(c) Moment Generating Function (MGF) is useful because:
- It uniquely characterizes the distribution.
- It helps find moments (mean, variance) by differentiation.
(d) To prove if $X \sim \text{Binomial}(m,p)$ and $Y \sim \text{Binomial}(n,p)$ are independent, then $X+Y \sim \text{Binomial}(m+n,p)$:
1. Given $M_X(s) = (pe^s + 1 - p)^m$ and $M_Y(s) = (pe^s + 1 - p)^n$.
2. Since $X$ and $Y$ are independent, $M_{X+Y}(s) = M_X(s) \times M_Y(s)$.
3. Substitute: $M_{X+Y}(s) = (pe^s + 1 - p)^m \times (pe^s + 1 - p)^n = (pe^s + 1 - p)^{m+n}$.
4. This is the MGF of a Binomial$(m+n,p)$ distribution.
(e) For $X \sim \text{Exponential}(\lambda)$ with PDF $f_X(x) = \lambda e^{-\lambda x} d(x)$:
1. MGF is $M_X(s) = E[e^{sX}] = \int_0^\infty e^{sx} \lambda e^{-\lambda x} dx = \frac{\lambda}{\lambda - s}$ for $s < \lambda$.
2. Moments: $E[X^k] = \frac{k!}{\lambda^k}$.
2. (a) Types of kurtosis:
- Mesokurtic: Normal distribution, kurtosis = 3.
- Leptokurtic: Heavy tails, kurtosis > 3 (e.g., t-distribution).
- Platykurtic: Light tails, kurtosis < 3 (e.g., uniform distribution).
(b) Standard error of an estimator is the standard deviation of its sampling distribution, measuring estimator variability.
(c) Complications in Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE):
- May have multiple local maxima.
- Requires large samples for accuracy.
- Can be computationally intensive.
(d) Bayesian estimation parameter involves updating prior beliefs with data to get posterior distribution.
(e) Find quartiles and deciles for wages:
1. Calculate cumulative frequencies.
2. Locate positions for $Q_1 = 0.25 \times 65 = 16.25$, $Q_2 = 0.5 \times 65 = 32.5$, $Q_3 = 0.75 \times 65 = 48.75$.
3. Locate deciles $D_1 = 0.1 \times 65 = 6.5$, $D_3 = 0.3 \times 65 = 19.5$.
4. Use interpolation within class intervals to find exact values.
Final answers:
(a) Properties: $0 \leq P(x) \leq 1$, $\sum P(x) = 1$.
(b) Bernoulli: single trial; Binomial: sum of trials.
(c) MGF helps find moments.
(d) $X+Y \sim \text{Binomial}(m+n,p)$ proven by MGF multiplication.
(e) $M_X(s) = \frac{\lambda}{\lambda - s}$, $E[X^k] = \frac{k!}{\lambda^k}$.
2(a) Kurtosis types: mesokurtic, leptokurtic, platykurtic.
(b) Standard error measures estimator variability.
(c) MLE complications: local maxima, sample size, computation.
(d) Bayesian estimation updates prior with data.
(e) Quartiles and deciles found by cumulative frequency and interpolation.