Normal Replacement
1. **State the problem:**
We have a normal distribution for replacement times with mean $\mu = 12.6$ years and standard deviation $\sigma = 1.5$ years.
We want to find:
- The probability $P(X < 8.1)$.
- The warranty time $w$ such that only 4.4% of pieces are replaced before $w$ years.
2. **Formula and rules:**
For a normal variable $X$, the standardized z-score is:
$$z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}$$
The probability $P(X < x)$ corresponds to $P(Z < z)$ where $Z$ is standard normal.
3. **Calculate $P(X < 8.1)$:**
$$z = \frac{8.1 - 12.6}{1.5} = \frac{-4.5}{1.5} = -3.0$$
Using standard normal tables or a calculator:
$$P(Z < -3.0) \approx 0.0013$$
So,
$$P(X < 8.1) = 0.0013$$
4. **Find warranty time $w$ for 4.4% replacement:**
We want $P(X < w) = 0.044$.
Find $z$ such that $P(Z < z) = 0.044$.
From z-tables or inverse normal function:
$$z \approx -1.70$$
Convert back to $w$:
$$w = \mu + z \sigma = 12.6 + (-1.70)(1.5) = 12.6 - 2.55 = 10.1$$
5. **Final answers:**
- $P(X < 8.1) = 0.0013$
- Warranty time $w = 10.1$ years
These answers are rounded as requested.