Joint Marginal Probabilities 5E88Ff
1. **Problem Statement:**
We have a population divided by age groups and poverty status. We want to find:
(i) The joint probability distribution of age (X) and poverty status (Y).
(ii) The marginal probability distribution of age (X).
(iii) The marginal probability distribution of poverty status (Y).
2. **Given Data:**
- Total population = 36,998 (in thousands)
- Age groups and counts:
- Under 18: Poverty = 347, No poverty = 12,680, Total = 13,027
- 18 to 64: Poverty = 517, No poverty = 19,997, Total = 20,514
- 65 & Older: Poverty = 130, No poverty = 3,327, Total = 3,457
3. **Random Variables:**
- $X = \begin{cases} 9 & \text{if age} < 18 \\ 41 & \text{if } 18 \leq \text{age} < 64 \\ 82 & \text{if age} \geq 65 \end{cases}$
- $Y = \begin{cases} 0 & \text{if not living in poverty} \\ 1 & \text{if living in poverty} \end{cases}$
4. **Formulas:**
- Joint probability: $P(X=x, Y=y) = \frac{\text{count in category}}{\text{total population}}$
- Marginal probability of $X$: $P(X=x) = \sum_y P(X=x, Y=y)$
- Marginal probability of $Y$: $P(Y=y) = \sum_x P(X=x, Y=y)$
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**(i) Joint Probability Distribution:**
Calculate each joint probability by dividing counts by total population 36,998.
- $P(X=9, Y=1) = \frac{347}{36998} \approx 0.00938$
- $P(X=9, Y=0) = \frac{12680}{36998} \approx 0.3426$
- $P(X=41, Y=1) = \frac{517}{36998} \approx 0.01397$
- $P(X=41, Y=0) = \frac{19997}{36998} \approx 0.5405$
- $P(X=82, Y=1) = \frac{130}{36998} \approx 0.00351$
- $P(X=82, Y=0) = \frac{3327}{36998} \approx 0.0899$
**Check sum:**
$0.00938 + 0.3426 + 0.01397 + 0.5405 + 0.00351 + 0.0899 = 1.0$ (approximately)
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**(ii) Marginal Probability Distribution of Age $X$:**
Sum joint probabilities over $Y$ for each $X$:
- $P(X=9) = 0.00938 + 0.3426 = 0.35198$
- $P(X=41) = 0.01397 + 0.5405 = 0.55447$
- $P(X=82) = 0.00351 + 0.0899 = 0.09341$
Check sum: $0.35198 + 0.55447 + 0.09341 = 1.0$
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**(iii) Marginal Probability Distribution of Poverty $Y$:**
Sum joint probabilities over $X$ for each $Y$:
- $P(Y=1) = 0.00938 + 0.01397 + 0.00351 = 0.02686$
- $P(Y=0) = 0.3426 + 0.5405 + 0.0899 = 0.97299$
Check sum: $0.02686 + 0.97299 = 0.99985 \approx 1$
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**Final answers:**
- Joint distribution $P(X,Y)$ as above.
- Marginal distribution $P(X)$ as above.
- Marginal distribution $P(Y)$ as above.