Drug Effectiveness 783Ad5
1. **State the problem:** We want to find the probability of observing 97 or fewer recoveries out of 150 patients if the new drug is equally effective as the standard drug, which has a recovery rate of 75% within three days.
2. **Identify the distribution:** The number of recoveries follows a binomial distribution with parameters $n=150$ and $p=0.75$.
3. **Calculate mean and standard deviation:**
- Mean $\mu = np = 150 \times 0.75 = 112.5$
- Standard deviation $\sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)} = \sqrt{150 \times 0.75 \times 0.25} = \sqrt{28.125} \approx 5.3$
4. **Use normal approximation:** Since $n$ is large, approximate the binomial with a normal distribution $N(112.5, 5.3^2)$.
5. **Apply continuity correction:** We want $P(X \leq 97)$, so use $P(X \leq 97.5)$ for the normal approximation.
6. **Calculate the z-score:**
$$z = \frac{97.5 - 112.5}{5.3} = \frac{-15}{5.3} \approx -2.83$$
7. **Find the probability:** Using standard normal tables or a calculator, $P(Z \leq -2.83) \approx 0.0023$.
**Final answer:** The probability of observing 97 or fewer recoveries if the new drug is equally effective is approximately $0.0023$, or 0.23%. This is a very small probability, suggesting the new drug may be less effective than the standard.