Confidence Interval Beta1
1. **Problem (d): Compute the 95% confidence interval for $\beta_1$**
To compute the confidence interval for $\beta_1$, we use the formula:
$$ CI = \hat{\beta}_1 \pm t_{\alpha/2, n-2} \times SE(\hat{\beta}_1) $$
where:
- $\hat{\beta}_1$ is the estimated slope coefficient
- $SE(\hat{\beta}_1)$ is the standard error of the slope
- $t_{\alpha/2, n-2}$ is the critical value from the t-distribution with $n-2$ degrees of freedom at $\alpha=0.05$ (for 95% confidence)
2. **Problem (e): Is the impact of the interest rate on the inflation rate statistically significant?**
We perform the hypothesis test:
- Null hypothesis $H_0: \beta_1 = 0$
- Alternative hypothesis $H_1: \beta_1 \neq 0$
Calculate the t-statistic:
$$ t = \frac{\hat{\beta}_1 - 0}{SE(\hat{\beta}_1)} $$
Compare $|t|$ to the critical value $t_{\alpha/2, n-2}$. If $|t| > t_{\alpha/2, n-2}$, reject $H_0$ and conclude significance.
3. **Problem (f): Interpret the OLS estimate of $\beta_1$**
The OLS estimate $\hat{\beta}_1$ represents the expected change in the inflation rate for a one-unit increase in the interest rate, holding other factors constant. A positive $\hat{\beta}_1$ means inflation increases as interest rate increases; a negative value means the opposite.
4. **Problem (g): Effect of increasing sample size to 1000 on the standard error estimate**
Standard error of $\hat{\beta}_1$ typically decreases as sample size increases because:
$$ SE(\hat{\beta}_1) \propto \frac{1}{\sqrt{n}} $$
Increasing $n$ to 1000 reduces the standard error, improving precision of the estimate, assuming variance and other conditions remain unchanged.