Confidence Bound 9B7404
1. **Problem statement:** We have a sample from a normal population with unknown variance. The sample mean is $\bar{x} = 40$. The 97% lower confidence bound for the population mean $\mu$ is given as $\mu \geq 38.5$. We need to find the 97% upper confidence bound for $\mu$.
2. **Understanding confidence bounds:**
- A 97% lower confidence bound means that with 97% confidence, the true mean $\mu$ is greater than or equal to 38.5.
- The confidence interval is one-sided here, so the lower bound is 38.5.
3. **Formula for one-sided confidence bound when variance is unknown:**
$$\bar{x} - t_{\alpha, n-1} \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \leq \mu$$
where $t_{\alpha, n-1}$ is the t-critical value for confidence level $1-\alpha$ with $n-1$ degrees of freedom, $s$ is the sample standard deviation, and $n$ is the sample size.
4. Since the lower bound is 38.5 and the sample mean is 40, the margin of error is:
$$40 - 38.5 = 1.5$$
5. The 97% lower bound corresponds to $\alpha = 0.03$ (3% in the lower tail). The upper bound at 97% confidence corresponds to the same margin of error but on the other side:
$$\mu \leq \bar{x} + t_{\alpha, n-1} \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}$$
6. Because the confidence level and sample are the same, the margin of error is symmetric. Therefore, the 97% upper confidence bound is:
$$40 + 1.5 = 41.5$$
**Final answer:** The 97% upper confidence bound for $\mu$ is $\boxed{41.5}$.