Binomial Probability D2Dd91
1. **Problem statement:** We have a binomial distribution with number of trials $n=10$ and probability of success $p=0.3$ (a passenger carries overweight luggage in a flight). We want to find:
a. The probability exactly 5 flights have overweight luggage.
b. The probability fewer than 3 flights have overweight luggage.
2. **Formula:** The binomial probability mass function is given by:
$$P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}$$
where $X$ is the number of successes, $k$ is the exact number of successes, $n$ is the number of trials, and $p$ is the probability of success.
3. **Calculate part (a):** Probability exactly 5 flights have overweight luggage:
$$P(X=5) = \binom{10}{5} (0.3)^5 (0.7)^5$$
Calculate the binomial coefficient:
$$\binom{10}{5} = \frac{10!}{5!5!} = 252$$
Calculate powers:
$$(0.3)^5 = 0.00243$$
$$(0.7)^5 = 0.16807$$
Multiply all:
$$P(X=5) = 252 \times 0.00243 \times 0.16807 \approx 0.103$$
4. **Calculate part (b):** Probability fewer than 3 flights have overweight luggage means $X < 3$, i.e., $X=0,1,2$.
$$P(X<3) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)$$
Calculate each term:
- $$P(X=0) = \binom{10}{0} (0.3)^0 (0.7)^{10} = 1 \times 1 \times 0.02825 = 0.02825$$
- $$P(X=1) = \binom{10}{1} (0.3)^1 (0.7)^9 = 10 \times 0.3 \times 0.04035 = 0.12105$$
- $$P(X=2) = \binom{10}{2} (0.3)^2 (0.7)^8 = 45 \times 0.09 \times 0.05765 = 0.23347$$
Sum these probabilities:
$$P(X<3) = 0.02825 + 0.12105 + 0.23347 = 0.38277$$
5. **Final answers:**
a. Probability exactly 5 flights have overweight luggage is approximately $0.103$.
b. Probability fewer than 3 flights have overweight luggage is approximately $0.383$.
These calculations use the binomial distribution formula and basic probability rules to find the required probabilities.