Probabilitas Kondisional
1. Diberikan probabilitas:
- $P(A) = 0.25$
- $P(B \mid A^c) = 0.87$
- $P(A \cap B) = 0.20$
Kita diminta mencari $P(B)$ dan $P(A \mid B)$.
2. Rumus yang digunakan:
- Probabilitas komplemen: $P(A^c) = 1 - P(A)$
- Probabilitas total untuk $B$:
$$P(B) = P(B \cap A) + P(B \cap A^c) = P(A \cap B) + P(B \mid A^c) \times P(A^c)$$
- Probabilitas kondisional:
$$P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}$$
3. Hitung $P(A^c)$:
$$P(A^c) = 1 - 0.25 = 0.75$$
4. Hitung $P(B)$:
$$P(B) = 0.20 + 0.87 \times 0.75 = 0.20 + 0.6525 = 0.8525$$
5. Hitung $P(A \mid B)$:
$$P(A \mid B) = \frac{0.20}{0.8525} \approx 0.2347$$
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6. Diberikan probabilitas baru:
- $P(A) = 0.7$
- $P(B) = 0.6$
- $P(A \cap B) = 0.35$
Diminta mencari $P(B)$ dan $P(A \mid B)$ (meskipun $P(B)$ sudah diketahui).
7. Hitung $P(A \mid B)$:
$$P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac{0.35}{0.6} \approx 0.5833$$
Jawaban akhir:
- $P(B) = 0.8525$
- $P(A \mid B) \approx 0.2347$
- $P(B)$ (diberikan) = 0.6
- $P(A \mid B) \approx 0.5833$