Poisson Cars
1. **Problem Statement:**
We have an intersection with an average of 150 cars passing through every hour. We want to analyze the number of cars passing through in a 1-minute period.
2. **Part (a): Probability Distribution**
Since the cars pass independently and the average rate is constant, the number of cars passing in a fixed interval follows a Poisson distribution.
The Poisson distribution formula is:
$$P(X=k) = \frac{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}{k!}$$
where $\lambda$ is the average number of events (cars) in the interval, and $k$ is the number of events.
3. **Part (b): Mean and Standard Deviation**
The average rate is 150 cars per hour, so for 1 minute:
$$\lambda = \frac{150}{60} = 2.5$$
For a Poisson distribution:
- Mean $\mu = \lambda = 2.5$
- Standard deviation $\sigma = \sqrt{\lambda} = \sqrt{2.5} \approx 1.58$
4. **Part (c): Probability of Exactly 3 Cars and Unusualness**
Calculate $P(X=3)$:
$$P(X=3) = \frac{2.5^3 e^{-2.5}}{3!} = \frac{15.625 \times e^{-2.5}}{6}$$
Calculate $e^{-2.5} \approx 0.0821$:
$$P(X=3) \approx \frac{15.625 \times 0.0821}{6} = \frac{1.282}{6} \approx 0.2137$$
Number of standard deviations from mean:
$$z = \frac{3 - 2.5}{1.58} \approx 0.32$$
Since $z$ is small and probability is relatively high, having exactly 3 cars is not unusual.
5. **Part (d): Probability of Between 5 and 10 Cars**
Calculate $P(5 \leq X \leq 10) = \sum_{k=5}^{10} P(X=k)$.
Using Poisson probabilities:
- $P(X=5) = \frac{2.5^5 e^{-2.5}}{5!} \approx 0.0668$
- $P(X=6) \approx 0.0278$
- $P(X=7) \approx 0.0099$
- $P(X=8) \approx 0.0031$
- $P(X=9) \approx 0.0009$
- $P(X=10) \approx 0.0002$
Sum:
$$0.0668 + 0.0278 + 0.0099 + 0.0031 + 0.0009 + 0.0002 = 0.1087$$
This probability is about 10.87%, which is low but not extremely rare, so it is somewhat unusual but not highly unlikely.
**Final answers:**
- (a) Poisson distribution with $\lambda=2.5$ cars per minute.
- (b) Mean = 2.5, Standard deviation $\approx 1.58$.
- (c) Probability of exactly 3 cars $\approx 0.214$, not unusual.
- (d) Probability between 5 and 10 cars $\approx 0.109$, somewhat unusual.