Subjects probability

Car Theft Probability 63474D

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Car Theft Probability 63474D


1. **State the problem:** We are given that the probability a car is stolen overnight in an unsafe area is 10%, or $p=0.1$. There are 12 cars parked on the street. We want to find the probability that during a night some number of cars are stolen. 2. **Identify the distribution:** This is a binomial probability problem because each car can be stolen or not stolen independently, with the same probability $p=0.1$. 3. **Binomial probability formula:** The probability of exactly $k$ cars stolen out of $n=12$ is given by $$P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}$$ where $\binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}$. 4. **Interpretation:** The problem as stated is incomplete about what exact probability is asked (e.g., exactly $k$ cars stolen, at least one car stolen, etc.). The most common question is the probability that at least one car is stolen. 5. **Calculate probability at least one car is stolen:** $$P(X \geq 1) = 1 - P(X=0)$$ 6. **Calculate $P(X=0)$:** $$P(X=0) = \binom{12}{0} (0.1)^0 (0.9)^{12} = 1 \times 1 \times 0.9^{12} = 0.9^{12}$$ 7. **Evaluate $0.9^{12}$:** $$0.9^{12} \approx 0.2824$$ 8. **Final probability:** $$P(X \geq 1) = 1 - 0.2824 = 0.7176$$ **Answer:** The probability that at least one car is stolen during the night is approximately **0.7176** or 71.76%.