Binomial Probability 573859
1. **Problem Statement:**
We have a group of 7 spectators randomly selected from a crowd where 70% are males. We want to find:
i. The probability exactly 4 are males.
ii. The probability that at most 5 are females.
2. **Relevant Formula:**
This is a binomial probability problem. The binomial probability formula is:
$$P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}$$
where:
- $n$ is the number of trials (7 people),
- $k$ is the number of successes (males or females),
- $p$ is the probability of success (for males, $p=0.7$),
- $\binom{n}{k}$ is the binomial coefficient, calculated as $\frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}$.
3. **Part i: Probability exactly 4 are males**
- Here, $n=7$, $k=4$, $p=0.7$.
- Calculate the binomial coefficient:
$$\binom{7}{4} = \frac{7!}{4!3!} = \frac{7 \times 6 \times 5}{3 \times 2 \times 1} = 35$$
- Calculate the probability:
$$P(X=4) = 35 \times (0.7)^4 \times (0.3)^3$$
- Calculate powers:
$$0.7^4 = 0.2401, \quad 0.3^3 = 0.027$$
- Multiply all:
$$P(X=4) = 35 \times 0.2401 \times 0.027 = 35 \times 0.0064827 = 0.2269$$
4. **Part ii: Probability at most 5 are females**
- Probability of female $= 1 - 0.7 = 0.3$.
- "At most 5 females" means number of females $\leq 5$.
- Since total is 7, number of males $\geq 2$ (because females $\leq 5$).
- We want $P(\text{females} \leq 5) = P(\text{males} \geq 2) = 1 - P(\text{males} < 2) = 1 - P(X=0) - P(X=1)$.
Calculate $P(X=0)$:
$$P(X=0) = \binom{7}{0} (0.7)^0 (0.3)^7 = 1 \times 1 \times 0.3^7 = 0.0002187$$
Calculate $P(X=1)$:
$$P(X=1) = \binom{7}{1} (0.7)^1 (0.3)^6 = 7 \times 0.7 \times 0.000729 = 7 \times 0.7 \times 0.000729 = 0.00357$$
Sum these:
$$P(X<2) = 0.0002187 + 0.00357 = 0.00379$$
Therefore:
$$P(\text{females} \leq 5) = 1 - 0.00379 = 0.9962$$
**Final answers:**
- i. $P(4 \text{ males}) = 0.2269$
- ii. $P(\text{at most 5 females}) = 0.9962$