Subjects probability

Bayes Theorem

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Bayes Theorem


1. We are given the probability expression $$p(m / a) = \frac{p(a / m) \times p(m)}{p(a)} = \frac{0.112}{0.152} \approx 0.7368$$. 2. This is an application of Bayes' Theorem, which states: $$p(m / a) = \frac{p(a / m) \times p(m)}{p(a)}$$ where: - $p(m / a)$ is the probability of $m$ given $a$. - $p(a / m)$ is the probability of $a$ given $m$. - $p(m)$ is the probability of $m$. - $p(a)$ is the probability of $a$. 3. We have been given numerical values: $$p(a / m) \times p(m) = 0.112$$ and $$p(a) = 0.152$$ 4. Substitute these values into Bayes' formula: $$p(m / a) = \frac{0.112}{0.152}$$ 5. Perform the division: $$p(m / a) \approx 0.7368$$ 6. This means the probability of $m$ given $a$ is approximately 0.7368 or 73.68%.