Monte Carlo Profits
1. **Problem:** Find the selling price for Trial 1 using the random number 81.
- Selling Price probabilities:
- Sh 10: 0.3 (0-30)
- Sh 15: 0.3 (31-60)
- Sh 10: 0.2 (61-80)
- Sh 70: 0.2 (81-100)
- Since 81 falls in 81-100, selling price = Sh 70.
2. **Problem:** Find the unit variable cost for Trial 3 using random number 36.
- Unit Variable Cost probabilities:
- Sh 6: 0.1 (0-10)
- Sh 8: 0.3 (11-40)
- Sh 10: 0.3 (41-70)
- Sh 9: 0.3 (71-100)
- 36 falls in 11-40, so cost = Sh 8.
3. **Problem:** Determine units demanded in Trial 2 using random number 10.
- Sales Units demand probabilities:
- 1000: 0.2 (0-20)
- 3000: 0.2 (21-40)
- 2000: 0.2 (41-60)
- 6000: 0.4 (61-100)
- 10 falls in 0-20, units demanded = 1000.
4. **Problem:** Compute profit for Trial 4.
- Trial 4 random numbers:
- Selling Price: 4 (0-30 Sh 10)
- Unit Cost: 29 (11-40 Sh 8)
- Units Demand: 23 (21-40 3000 units)
- Profit formula: $$\text{Profit} = (\text{Selling Price} - \text{Unit Cost}) \times \text{Units Demand}$$
- Calculate: $$(10 - 8) \times 3000 = 2 \times 3000 = 6000$$
5. **Problem:** Selling price in Trial 7 with random number 2.
- 2 falls in 0-30, selling price = Sh 10.
6. **Problem:** Units demanded in Trial 8 with random number 39.
- 39 falls in 21-40, units demanded = 3000.
7. **Problem:** Unit variable cost in Trial 10 with random number 11.
- 11 falls in 11-40, cost = Sh 8.
8. **Problem:** Compute profit for Trial 6.
- Trial 6 random numbers:
- Selling Price: 77 (61-80 Sh 10)
- Unit Cost: 9 (0-10 Sh 6)
- Units Demand: 78 (61-100 6000 units)
- Profit: $$(10 - 6) \times 6000 = 4 \times 6000 = 24000$$
9. **Problem:** Units demanded in Trial 9 with random number 5.
- 5 falls in 0-20, units demanded = 1000.
10. **Problem:** Compute average profit across all 10 trials.
- Calculate each trial's selling price, unit cost, units demand, then profit:
|Trial|SP Rand|SP|UC Rand|UC|UD Rand|UD|Profit|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|1|81|70|1|6|99|6000|$(70-6)\times6000=384000$
|2|65|10|53|10|10|1000|$(10-10)\times1000=0$
|3|49|15|36|8|36|2000|$(15-8)\times2000=14000$
|4|4|10|29|8|23|3000|$(10-8)\times3000=6000$
|5|53|10|11|6|25|3000|$(10-6)\times3000=12000$
|6|77|10|9|6|78|6000|$(10-6)\times6000=24000$
|7|2|10|70|9|52|2000|$(10-9)\times2000=2000$
|8|74|10|9|6|39|3000|$(10-6)\times3000=12000$
|9|7|10|6|6|5|1000|$(10-6)\times1000=4000$
|10|29|15|11|8|66|6000|$(15-8)\times6000=42000$
- Sum profits: $384000 + 0 + 14000 + 6000 + 12000 + 24000 + 2000 + 12000 + 4000 + 42000 = 490000$
- Average profit: $$\frac{490000}{10} = 49000$$
**Final answers:**
1. Sh 70
2. Sh 8
3. 1000 units
4. 6000
5. Sh 10
6. 3000 units
7. Sh 8
8. 24000
9. 1000 units
10. 49000