Npv Irr Payback
1. **Problem Statement:**
Calculate the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and payback period for a new hand drill project with given costs, sales, inflation, depreciation, tax, and risk parameters.
2. **Key Formulas and Concepts:**
- NPV: $$NPV=\sum_{t=0}^n \frac{CF_t}{(1+r)^t}$$ where $CF_t$ is cash flow at year $t$, $r$ is discount rate.
- IRR: The discount rate $r$ that makes $NPV=0$.
- Payback Period: Time to recover initial investment from cumulative cash flows.
- Depreciation (Straight-line): $$\text{Depreciation} = \frac{\text{Cost} - \text{Salvage Value}}{\text{Life}}$$
- Operating Working Capital (OWC): 10% of sales each year.
- Sales and variable costs increase by 3% inflation after Year 0.
- Tax rate: 25%.
3. **Step-by-step Calculation:**
**Step 1: Initial Investment (Year 0)**
- Equipment cost = 1,250,000
- Initial OWC = 10% of Year 0 sales
- Year 0 sales = 7,500 units * 240 = 1,800,000
- Initial OWC = 0.10 * 1,800,000 = 180,000
- Total initial outflow = 1,250,000 + 180,000 = 1,430,000
**Step 2: Annual Sales and Costs for Years 1 to 5**
- Sales price increases 3% annually: $$P_t = 240 \times (1.03)^t$$
- Variable cost increases 3% annually: $$VC_t = 175 \times (1.03)^t$$
- Units sold each year = 7,500
- Non-variable costs start at 100,000 in Year 1 and increase 3% annually: $$NVC_t = 100,000 \times (1.03)^{t-1}$$
**Step 3: Depreciation**
- Depreciation per year = $\frac{1,250,000 - 50,000}{5} = 240,000$
**Step 4: Calculate EBIT for each year**
$$EBIT_t = (P_t \times 7,500) - (VC_t \times 7,500) - NVC_t - Depreciation$$
**Step 5: Calculate Taxes and Net Income**
- Taxes = $EBIT_t \times 0.25$
- Net Income = $EBIT_t - Taxes$
**Step 6: Calculate Operating Cash Flow (OCF)**
$$OCF_t = Net\ Income + Depreciation$$
**Step 7: Calculate Change in OWC**
- OWC each year = 10% of sales
- Change in OWC = $OWC_t - OWC_{t-1}$
**Step 8: Calculate Net Cash Flow (NCF)**
$$NCF_t = OCF_t - Change\ in\ OWC_t$$
**Step 9: Add Salvage Value and recover OWC at Year 5**
- Salvage value = 100,000
- Recover OWC at Year 5
**Step 10: Calculate NPV**
- Use discount rate 10% (average risk)
- $$NPV = -Initial\ Investment + \sum_{t=1}^5 \frac{NCF_t}{(1.10)^t} + \frac{Salvage + OWC_5}{(1.10)^5}$$
**Step 11: Calculate IRR**
- Find rate $r$ such that $$NPV=0$$
**Step 12: Calculate Payback Period**
- Sum cumulative net cash flows until initial investment is recovered.
4. **Summary:**
- Initial investment: 1,430,000
- Calculate yearly sales, costs, EBIT, taxes, OCF, changes in OWC, net cash flows.
- Discount net cash flows at 10% to find NPV.
- IRR is the discount rate making NPV zero.
- Payback is year when cumulative cash flow turns positive.
This model can be implemented in a spreadsheet for precise numeric results.