Forwards Futures Arbitrage C9869D
1. **Problem Statement:**
a) Explain five differences between forwards and futures contracts.
b) Given exchange rates EUR/USD = 1.2000 (London), EUR/CAD = 1.5000 (London), USD/CAD = 1.2539 (New York), check for arbitrage opportunities and calculate profit/loss from triangular arbitrage starting with USD 1,000,000.
2. **Differences between forwards and futures contracts:**
1. Forwards are private, customizable contracts traded OTC; futures are standardized and traded on exchanges.
2. Forwards settle at contract maturity; futures are marked-to-market daily.
3. Forwards have counterparty risk; futures have clearinghouse guarantee reducing risk.
4. Forwards are less liquid; futures are highly liquid.
5. Forwards can be tailored to any amount and date; futures have fixed contract sizes and expiration dates.
3. **Arbitrage check using triangular arbitrage:**
Given:
$$EUR/USD = 1.2000$$
$$EUR/CAD = 1.5000$$
$$USD/CAD = 1.2539$$
Cross rate USD/CAD implied from EUR rates:
$$\text{Implied } USD/CAD = \frac{EUR/CAD}{EUR/USD} = \frac{1.5000}{1.2000} = 1.25$$
Actual USD/CAD = 1.2539
Since actual USD/CAD (1.2539) > implied USD/CAD (1.25), there is a potential arbitrage opportunity.
4. **Triangular arbitrage steps starting with USD 1,000,000:**
Step 1: Convert USD to EUR at EUR/USD = 1.2000
$$\text{EUR} = \frac{1,000,000}{1.2000} = 833,333.33$$
Step 2: Convert EUR to CAD at EUR/CAD = 1.5000
$$\text{CAD} = 833,333.33 \times 1.5000 = 1,250,000$$
Step 3: Convert CAD back to USD at USD/CAD = 1.2539 (means 1 USD = 1.2539 CAD, so 1 CAD = \frac{1}{1.2539} USD)
$$\text{USD final} = 1,250,000 \times \frac{1}{1.2539} = 1,250,000 \times 0.7975 = 996,875$$
5. **Profit/Loss calculation:**
$$\text{Profit/Loss} = \text{USD final} - \text{USD initial} = 996,875 - 1,000,000 = -3,125$$
There is a loss of 3,125 USD, so no profitable arbitrage opportunity exists.
**Final answers:**
- Five differences between forwards and futures contracts as above.
- Arbitrage opportunity check shows no profit.
- Triangular arbitrage results in a loss of 3,125 USD starting with 1,000,000 USD.