Discounted Mean Term 468E12
1. **Problem Statement:**
Calculate the discounted mean term (also called the Macaulay duration) of a bond redeemable at par in 10 years with annual coupons of 8%, at interest rates of 5%, 10%, and 15%.
2. **Formula and Explanation:**
The discounted mean term (Macaulay duration) $D$ is given by:
$$D = \frac{\sum_{t=1}^n t \cdot \frac{C}{(1+i)^t} + n \cdot \frac{F}{(1+i)^n}}{P}$$
where:
- $n=10$ is the number of years
- $C=0.08$ (8% coupon rate times par value 1)
- $F=1$ is the redemption value (par)
- $i$ is the interest rate
- $P$ is the price of the bond, calculated as:
$$P = \sum_{t=1}^n \frac{C}{(1+i)^t} + \frac{F}{(1+i)^n}$$
3. **Calculate price $P$ and duration $D$ for each interest rate:**
**At $i=0.05$ (5%):**
Calculate $P$:
$$P = \sum_{t=1}^{10} \frac{0.08}{(1.05)^t} + \frac{1}{(1.05)^{10}}$$
Using the formula for the present value of an annuity:
$$\sum_{t=1}^{10} \frac{1}{(1.05)^t} = \frac{1 - (1.05)^{-10}}{0.05} = 7.7217$$
So coupon PV:
$$0.08 \times 7.7217 = 0.6177$$
Redemption PV:
$$\frac{1}{(1.05)^{10}} = 0.6139$$
Price:
$$P = 0.6177 + 0.6139 = 1.2316$$
Calculate numerator for $D$:
$$\sum_{t=1}^{10} t \cdot \frac{0.08}{(1.05)^t} + 10 \cdot \frac{1}{(1.05)^{10}}$$
Calculate $\sum t/(1.05)^t$:
Using the formula for weighted sum of a geometric series:
$$\sum_{t=1}^n t x^t = x \frac{1 - (n+1)x^n + n x^{n+1}}{(1-x)^2}$$
Here $x=1/1.05=0.95238$, $n=10$:
$$\sum_{t=1}^{10} t (0.95238)^t = 6.8085$$
Multiply by coupon:
$$0.08 \times 6.8085 = 0.5447$$
Add redemption term:
$$10 \times 0.6139 = 6.139$$
Numerator:
$$0.5447 + 6.139 = 6.6837$$
Duration:
$$D = \frac{6.6837}{1.2316} = 5.43 \text{ years}$$
**At $i=0.10$ (10%):**
Calculate $P$:
$$\sum_{t=1}^{10} \frac{1}{(1.10)^t} = \frac{1 - (1.10)^{-10}}{0.10} = 6.1446$$
Coupon PV:
$$0.08 \times 6.1446 = 0.4916$$
Redemption PV:
$$\frac{1}{(1.10)^{10}} = 0.3855$$
Price:
$$P = 0.4916 + 0.3855 = 0.8771$$
Calculate numerator:
$$\sum_{t=1}^{10} t (1/1.10)^t = 5.7590$$
Coupon weighted sum:
$$0.08 \times 5.7590 = 0.4607$$
Redemption term:
$$10 \times 0.3855 = 3.855$$
Numerator:
$$0.4607 + 3.855 = 4.3157$$
Duration:
$$D = \frac{4.3157}{0.8771} = 4.92 \text{ years}$$
**At $i=0.15$ (15%):**
Calculate $P$:
$$\sum_{t=1}^{10} \frac{1}{(1.15)^t} = \frac{1 - (1.15)^{-10}}{0.15} = 5.0188$$
Coupon PV:
$$0.08 \times 5.0188 = 0.4015$$
Redemption PV:
$$\frac{1}{(1.15)^{10}} = 0.2472$$
Price:
$$P = 0.4015 + 0.2472 = 0.6487$$
Calculate numerator:
$$\sum_{t=1}^{10} t (1/1.15)^t = 4.9277$$
Coupon weighted sum:
$$0.08 \times 4.9277 = 0.3942$$
Redemption term:
$$10 \times 0.2472 = 2.472$$
Numerator:
$$0.3942 + 2.472 = 2.8662$$
Duration:
$$D = \frac{2.8662}{0.6487} = 4.42 \text{ years}$$
4. **Summary of results:**
- At 5% interest rate, discounted mean term $D = 5.43$ years
- At 10% interest rate, discounted mean term $D = 4.92$ years
- At 15% interest rate, discounted mean term $D = 4.42$ years
5. **Interpretation:**
The discounted mean term decreases as the interest rate increases, reflecting that higher discount rates reduce the present value of distant cash flows more heavily.
6. **Graph sketch:**
The graph of discounted mean term $D$ as a function of interest rate $i$ over $[0.05, 0.15]$ is a decreasing curve starting near 5.43 at 5% and falling to about 4.42 at 15%.