Cost Benefit Analysis 176B84
1. **Problem Statement:**
Gecrogo Pte. Ltd. plans to develop an online sales system with development cost RM120,000 at Year 0. Operating costs and benefits for Years 1 to 5 are given. Discount rate is 11% with present value factors provided. We need to:
(i) Develop a cost-benefit analysis table, calculate cumulative costs, benefits, and payback period.
(ii) Calculate Return on Investment (ROI).
(iii) Calculate Net Present Value (NPV).
(iv) Justify economic feasibility.
2. **Formulas and Important Rules:**
- Present Value (PV) = Future Value \times Present Value Factor
- Cumulative Cost/Benefit = Sum of costs/benefits up to that year
- Payback Period: Time when cumulative benefits equal cumulative costs
- ROI = \frac{Total Benefits - Total Costs}{Total Costs} \times 100\%
- NPV = \sum_{t=0}^n \frac{Net Cash Flow_t}{(1 + r)^t} = \sum_{t=0}^n Net Cash Flow_t \times PV Factor_t
3. **Calculations:**
| Year | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|-------|-----|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|
| Development Cost | 120000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Operating Cost | 0 | 28000 | 30000 | 35000 | 38000 | 50000 |
| Total Cost | 120000 | 28000 | 30000 | 35000 | 38000 | 50000 |
| Benefit | 0 | 60000 | 65000 | 70000 | 75000 | 80000 |
- Cumulative Costs:
- Year 0: 120000
- Year 1: 120000 + 28000 = 148000
- Year 2: 148000 + 30000 = 178000
- Year 3: 178000 + 35000 = 213000
- Year 4: 213000 + 38000 = 251000
- Year 5: 251000 + 50000 = 301000
- Cumulative Benefits:
- Year 0: 0
- Year 1: 60000
- Year 2: 60000 + 65000 = 125000
- Year 3: 125000 + 70000 = 195000
- Year 4: 195000 + 75000 = 270000
- Year 5: 270000 + 80000 = 350000
- Payback Period: The year when cumulative benefits >= cumulative costs.
- At Year 4, cumulative benefits = 270000 < cumulative costs = 251000 (benefits exceed costs here)
- At Year 5, benefits = 350000 > costs = 301000
- Payback period is between Year 4 and Year 5.
- Calculate exact payback period:
$$\text{Payback Period} = 4 + \frac{251000 - 270000}{80000} = 4 + \frac{-19000}{80000} = 4 - 0.2375 = 3.76 \text{ years}$$
Since negative fraction means payback occurs before Year 4, re-check:
Actually, cumulative benefits at Year 4 = 270000 > 251000 costs, so payback occurs during Year 4.
Calculate fraction of Year 4:
$$\text{Payback Period} = 3 + \frac{213000 - 195000}{75000} = 3 + \frac{18000}{75000} = 3 + 0.24 = 3.24 \text{ years}$$
Correct payback period is approximately 3.24 years.
4. **ROI Calculation:**
- Total Benefits (sum over 5 years) = 60000 + 65000 + 70000 + 75000 + 80000 = 350000
- Total Costs = Development + Operating = 120000 + (28000 + 30000 + 35000 + 38000 + 50000) = 120000 + 181000 = 301000
- ROI:
$$ROI = \frac{350000 - 301000}{301000} \times 100\% = \frac{49000}{301000} \times 100\% \approx 16.28\%$$
5. **NPV Calculation:**
- Calculate Net Cash Flow each year = Benefits - Operating Costs (Year 0 is development cost only):
- Year 0: -120000
- Year 1: 60000 - 28000 = 32000
- Year 2: 65000 - 30000 = 35000
- Year 3: 70000 - 35000 = 35000
- Year 4: 75000 - 38000 = 37000
- Year 5: 80000 - 50000 = 30000
- Multiply each by Present Value Factor:
- Year 0: -120000 \times 1.0000 = -120000
- Year 1: 32000 \times 0.9009 = 28829
- Year 2: 35000 \times 0.8116 = 28406
- Year 3: 35000 \times 0.7312 = 25592
- Year 4: 37000 \times 0.6587 = 24372
- Year 5: 30000 \times 0.5935 = 17805
- Sum all:
$$NPV = -120000 + 28829 + 28406 + 25592 + 24372 + 17805 = 17504$$
- Rounded to nearest Ringgit: RM17504
6. **Economic Feasibility Justification:**
- Payback period is about 3.24 years, which is less than project duration (5 years), indicating investment recovery within project life.
- ROI is positive at 16.28%, showing profitability.
- NPV is positive (RM17504), indicating the project adds value and is financially viable.
**Final answers:**
- Payback Period: Approximately 3.24 years
- ROI: 16.28%
- NPV: RM17504
These results suggest the project is economically feasible and worth pursuing.