Savings Investment
1. **Problem Statement:**
We want to estimate the relationship between savings ($S$) and investment ($I$) using the given data.
2. **Specify the model:**
The simple linear regression model is:
$$I = \beta_0 + \beta_1 S + \epsilon$$
where $\beta_0$ is the intercept, $\beta_1$ is the slope coefficient, and $\epsilon$ is the error term.
3. **Estimate the model using OLS:**
Calculate the slope $\hat{\beta}_1$ and intercept $\hat{\beta}_0$ using formulas:
$$\hat{\beta}_1 = \frac{\sum (S_i - \bar{S})(I_i - \bar{I})}{\sum (S_i - \bar{S})^2}$$
$$\hat{\beta}_0 = \bar{I} - \hat{\beta}_1 \bar{S}$$
Calculate means:
$$\bar{S} = \frac{100+200+300+400+500+600+700+700+800+1000}{10} = 530$$
$$\bar{I} = \frac{40+45+50+65+70+70+80+85+85+95}{10} = 68.5$$
Calculate sums:
$$\sum (S_i - \bar{S})(I_i - \bar{I}) = 54450$$
$$\sum (S_i - \bar{S})^2 = 409000$$
Thus,
$$\hat{\beta}_1 = \frac{54450}{409000} \approx 0.1331$$
$$\hat{\beta}_0 = 68.5 - 0.1331 \times 530 = 68.5 - 70.543 = -2.043$$
Estimated regression equation:
$$\hat{I} = -2.043 + 0.1331 S$$
4. **Interpretation:**
The slope $0.1331$ means for each unit increase in savings, investment increases by approximately 0.1331 units.
The intercept $-2.043$ is the estimated investment when savings are zero (may not be meaningful if $S=0$ is outside data range).
5. **Coefficient of determination ($R^2$) and correlation coefficient ($r$):**
Calculate total sum of squares (SST), regression sum of squares (SSR), and residual sum of squares (SSE):
$$SST = \sum (I_i - \bar{I})^2 = 2637.5$$
$$SSR = \sum (\hat{I}_i - \bar{I})^2 = 2420.5$$
$$SSE = SST - SSR = 217$$
Coefficient of determination:
$$R^2 = \frac{SSR}{SST} = \frac{2420.5}{2637.5} \approx 0.918$$
Correlation coefficient:
$$r = \sqrt{R^2} = \sqrt{0.918} \approx 0.958$$
Interpretation: About 91.8% of the variation in investment is explained by savings. The strong positive correlation (0.958) indicates a strong linear relationship.
6. **Standard error of slope coefficient:**
Calculate variance of residuals:
$$s^2 = \frac{SSE}{n-2} = \frac{217}{8} = 27.125$$
Standard error:
$$SE_{\hat{\beta}_1} = \sqrt{\frac{s^2}{\sum (S_i - \bar{S})^2}} = \sqrt{\frac{27.125}{409000}} \approx 0.00814$$
7. **Hypothesis test on slope at 5% significance:**
Null hypothesis: $H_0: \beta_1 = 0$
Alternative: $H_a: \beta_1 \neq 0$
Test statistic:
$$t = \frac{\hat{\beta}_1 - 0}{SE_{\hat{\beta}_1}} = \frac{0.1331}{0.00814} \approx 16.35$$
Degrees of freedom: $n-2=8$
Critical $t$ value (two-tailed, 5%): approximately 2.306
Since $16.35 > 2.306$, reject $H_0$. There is strong evidence that savings significantly affect investment.
**Final answers:**
- Regression equation: $$\hat{I} = -2.043 + 0.1331 S$$
- $R^2 = 0.918$, $r = 0.958$
- Standard error of slope: $0.00814$
- Hypothesis test: slope is statistically significant at 5% level.