Subjects demography

Fertility Rates 654Fb1

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Fertility Rates 654Fb1


1. **Problem Statement:** Calculate the following from the given data: (i) Crude Birth Rate (CBR) (ii) General Fertility Rate (GFR) (iii) Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR) (iv) Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 2. **Given Data:** | Age Group | Female Population (F) | Births (B) | |-----------|----------------------|------------| | 15-19 | 78060 | 4914 | | 20-24 | 68710 | 7092 | | 25-29 | 57600 | 5123 | | 30-34 | 52320 | 3161 | | 35-39 | 5650 | 2178 | | 40-44 | 50810 | 687 | | 45-49 | 49610 | 42 | Total births = 10000 (as given) 3. **Formulas and Explanation:** - Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is the number of births per 1000 total population. Here, total population is not given, so we assume total female population as sum of all age groups. $$\text{CBR} = \frac{\text{Total Births}}{\text{Total Population}} \times 1000$$ - General Fertility Rate (GFR) is the number of births per 1000 women of reproductive age (usually 15-49 years). $$\text{GFR} = \frac{\text{Total Births}}{\text{Total Female Population (15-49)}} \times 1000$$ - Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR) for each age group is the number of births per 1000 women in that age group. $$\text{ASFR}_i = \frac{B_i}{F_i} \times 1000$$ - Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the sum of ASFRs multiplied by the length of each age interval (usually 5 years), representing the average number of children a woman would have if she experienced the current ASFRs throughout her reproductive life. $$\text{TFR} = 5 \times \sum \frac{B_i}{F_i}$$ 4. **Calculations:** - Total female population: $$\text{Total Female} = 78060 + 68710 + 57600 + 52320 + 5650 + 50810 + 49610 = 362760$$ - (i) CBR: $$\text{CBR} = \frac{10000}{362760} \times 1000 = 27.58$$ - (ii) GFR: $$\text{GFR} = \frac{10000}{362760} \times 1000 = 27.58$$ (Note: Since total population is not given, we use total female population as denominator for both CBR and GFR here.) - (iii) ASFR for each age group: | Age Group | ASFR = $\frac{B_i}{F_i} \times 1000$ | |-----------|---------------------------------------| | 15-19 | $\frac{4914}{78060} \times 1000 = 62.93$ | | 20-24 | $\frac{7092}{68710} \times 1000 = 103.21$ | | 25-29 | $\frac{5123}{57600} \times 1000 = 88.98$ | | 30-34 | $\frac{3161}{52320} \times 1000 = 60.42$ | | 35-39 | $\frac{2178}{5650} \times 1000 = 385.31$ | | 40-44 | $\frac{687}{50810} \times 1000 = 13.52$ | | 45-49 | $\frac{42}{49610} \times 1000 = 0.85$ | - (iv) TFR: $$\text{TFR} = 5 \times \sum \frac{B_i}{F_i} = 5 \times (0.06293 + 0.10321 + 0.08898 + 0.06042 + 0.38531 + 0.01352 + 0.00085)$$ $$= 5 \times 0.71522 = 3.576$$ 5. **Interpretation:** - CBR and GFR are approximately 27.58 births per 1000 females. - ASFR shows fertility rates vary by age, with the highest in 35-39 age group here (likely data anomaly or special case). - TFR of about 3.58 means on average a woman would have about 3.58 children if current fertility rates persist. **Final answers:** - CBR = 27.58 - GFR = 27.58 - ASFR as above per age group - TFR = 3.58 (rounded)