Subjects decision analysis

Expected Earnings 89D59B

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Expected Earnings 89D59B


1. **Problem Statement:** Mr. Chiwetalu must choose among three companies (BetaGold, Ladap, GCV Limited) and their departments (Y or Z) based on expected monthly earnings. 2. **Formula for Expected Value (EV):** $$EV = \sum (probability \times earning)$$ This helps calculate the average expected earning for each choice. 3. **Calculate EV for BetaGold:** - Department Y: $$EV = 0.5 \times 50000 + 0.5 \times 25000 = 25000 + 12500 = 37500$$ - Department Z: $$EV = 0.2 \times 80000 + 0.8 \times 40000 = 16000 + 32000 = 48000$$ 4. **Calculate EV for Ladap:** - Department Y: $$EV = 0.7 \times 20000 + 0.3 \times 50000 = 14000 + 15000 = 29000$$ - Department Z: $$EV = 0.9 \times 25000 + 0.1 \times 60000 = 22500 + 6000 = 28500$$ 5. **Calculate EV for GCV Limited:** - Department Y: $$EV = 0.2 \times 25000 + 0.8 \times 30000 = 5000 + 24000 = 29000$$ - Department Z: $$EV = 0.35 \times 28500 + 0.65 \times 65600 = 9975 + 42640 = 52615$$ 6. **Decision Tree Analysis:** - BetaGold Z has EV = 48000 - Ladap Y has EV = 29000 - Ladap Z has EV = 28500 - GCV Y has EV = 29000 - GCV Z has EV = 52615 7. **Advice:** Choose GCV Limited, Department Z, for the highest expected earning of N52615 per month.