Subjects decision analysis

Emv Product X

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Emv Product X


1. **State the problem:** Calculate the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) for Product X. 2. **Given:** - Development cost = 50000 - Probability of success = 0.7 - Profit if successful = 150000 - Probability of failure = 0.3 - Salvage value if failure = 20000 3. **Calculate payoffs subtracting development cost:** - Payoff if success = 150000 - 50000 = 100000 - Payoff if failure = 20000 - 50000 = -30000 4. **Compute EMV using formula:** $$EMV = (P(success) \times Payoff_{success}) + (P(failure) \times Payoff_{failure})$$ $$EMV = 0.7 \times 100000 + 0.3 \times (-30000)$$ $$EMV = 70000 - 9000 = 61000$$ 5. **Result:** The EMV is 61000 which indicates the expected net monetary value after considering cost and probabilities. 6. **Check options:** closest to 61000 is option d. 64000, but none match exactly. Hence, none of the options a, b, c, d exactly matches the calculated EMV of 61000.