Decision Emv
1. **State the problem:**
We are given three probabilities: $0.4$, $0.3$, and $0.3$.
We have two alternatives $A1$ with payoffs $(40, 20, 0)$ and $A2$ with payoffs $(30, 30, 30)$.
We want to find which decision is better using the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) criterion.
2. **Calculate EMV for $A1$:**
$$\text{EMV}_{A1} = 0.4 \times 40 + 0.3 \times 20 + 0.3 \times 0$$
$$= 16 + 6 + 0 = 22$$
3. **Calculate EMV for $A2$:**
$$\text{EMV}_{A2} = 0.4 \times 30 + 0.3 \times 30 + 0.3 \times 30$$
$$= 12 + 9 + 9 = 30$$
4. **Compare the EMVs and conclude:**
Since $\text{EMV}_{A2} = 30$ is greater than $\text{EMV}_{A1} = 22$, decision $A2$ is better based on the EMV criterion.
**Final answer:** $\boxed{A2}$