Overhead Trendline C988Fb
1. **Problem Statement:**
We have monthly data on overhead costs and billable hours. We want to:
a. Develop a trendline (linear regression) to model overhead costs as a function of billable hours.
b. Interpret the coefficients of the regression model.
c. Decide if a special job with 1,000 billable hours and a margin of 38,000 before overhead is attractive.
2. **Formula and Approach:**
We use the simple linear regression model:
$$\text{Overhead Cost} = b_0 + b_1 \times \text{Billable Hours}$$
where $b_0$ is the fixed overhead (intercept) and $b_1$ is the variable overhead cost per billable hour (slope).
3. **Calculate the coefficients:**
Given data points $(x_i, y_i)$ where $x_i$ = billable hours and $y_i$ = overhead costs:
Calculate means:
$$\bar{x} = \frac{3000 + 4000 + 5000 + 6000 + 7000 + 8000}{6} = 5500$$
$$\bar{y} = \frac{365000 + 400000 + 430000 + 477000 + 560000 + 587000}{6} = 469833.33$$
Calculate slope $b_1$:
$$b_1 = \frac{\sum (x_i - \bar{x})(y_i - \bar{y})}{\sum (x_i - \bar{x})^2}$$
Calculate numerator:
$$(3000-5500)(365000-469833.33) + (4000-5500)(400000-469833.33) + (5000-5500)(430000-469833.33) + (6000-5500)(477000-469833.33) + (7000-5500)(560000-469833.33) + (8000-5500)(587000-469833.33)$$
$$= (-2500)(-104833.33) + (-1500)(-69833.33) + (-500)(-39833.33) + (500)(7166.67) + (1500)(90166.67) + (2500)(117166.67)$$
$$= 262083333.33 + 104750000 + 19916666.67 + 3583333.33 + 135250000 + 292916666.67 = 818500000$$
Calculate denominator:
$$(3000-5500)^2 + (4000-5500)^2 + (5000-5500)^2 + (6000-5500)^2 + (7000-5500)^2 + (8000-5500)^2$$
$$= 2500^2 + 1500^2 + 500^2 + 500^2 + 1500^2 + 2500^2 = 6,250,000 + 2,250,000 + 250,000 + 250,000 + 2,250,000 + 6,250,000 = 17,500,000$$
So,
$$b_1 = \frac{818500000}{17500000} = 46.77$$
Calculate intercept $b_0$:
$$b_0 = \bar{y} - b_1 \times \bar{x} = 469833.33 - 46.77 \times 5500 = 469833.33 - 257235 = 212598.33$$
4. **Regression model:**
$$\text{Overhead Cost} = 212598.33 + 46.77 \times \text{Billable Hours}$$
5. **Interpretation:**
- The fixed component $b_0 = 212598.33$ represents the overhead costs that occur regardless of billable hours (e.g., rent, salaries).
- The slope $b_1 = 46.77$ means each additional billable hour adds approximately 46.77 to overhead costs.
6. **Evaluate the special job:**
- Additional overhead for 1000 hours:
$$46.77 \times 1000 = 46770$$
- Margin before overhead: 38000
- Net margin after overhead:
$$38000 - 46770 = -8770$$
Since the net margin is negative, the job is not attractive financially.
**Final answer:**
The regression model is $$\text{Overhead Cost} = 212598.33 + 46.77 \times \text{Billable Hours}$$
The fixed overhead is about 212598.33, representing costs independent of hours.
The job with 1000 billable hours is not attractive as it results in a loss of 8770 after overhead costs.