Subjects algebra

Sales Forecast Afb96C

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Sales Forecast Afb96C


1. **Problem statement:** Forecast the future sales for the years 2016, 2017, and 2018 given that sales in 2015 were 345000 and sales increase by 10% per annum. 2. **Formula used:** The formula for compound growth is: $$ S_n = S_0 \times (1 + r)^n $$ where $S_n$ is the sales after $n$ years, $S_0$ is the initial sales, and $r$ is the growth rate. 3. **Calculations for Task 1:** - Sales in 2015: $S_0 = 345000$ - Growth rate: $r = 0.10$ - For 2016 ($n=1$): $$ S_1 = 345000 \times (1 + 0.10)^1 = 345000 \times 1.10 = 379500 $$ - For 2017 ($n=2$): $$ S_2 = 345000 \times (1.10)^2 = 345000 \times 1.21 = 417450 $$ - For 2018 ($n=3$): $$ S_3 = 345000 \times (1.10)^3 = 345000 \times 1.331 = 459195 $$ 4. **Task 2 problem statement:** Predict future sales based on previous years' sales data: 2012: 27.9 million, 2013: 36.5 million, 2014: 51 million. 5. **Approach for Task 2:** We can use linear extrapolation or compound growth rate. 6. **Calculate annual growth rate between 2012 and 2014:** $$ r = \left(\frac{51}{27.9}\right)^{\frac{1}{2}} - 1 = (1.8287)^{0.5} - 1 = 1.3523 - 1 = 0.3523 $$ So approximately 35.23% growth per year. 7. **Forecast sales for 2015 using compound growth:** $$ S_{2015} = 51 \times (1 + 0.3523) = 51 \times 1.3523 = 68.47 \text{ million} $$ 8. **Alternatively, linear extrapolation:** Calculate yearly increase: $$ \text{Increase}_{2013-2012} = 36.5 - 27.9 = 8.6 $$ $$ \text{Increase}_{2014-2013} = 51 - 36.5 = 14.5 $$ Average increase: $$ \frac{8.6 + 14.5}{2} = 11.55 \text{ million per year} $$ Forecast 2015 sales: $$ 51 + 11.55 = 62.55 \text{ million} $$ **Final answers:** - Task 1: Sales forecast for 2016 = 379500, 2017 = 417450, 2018 = 459195. - Task 2: Forecast 2015 sales approximately 68.47 million (compound growth) or 62.55 million (linear extrapolation).