Sales Forecast Afb96C
1. **Problem statement:**
Forecast the future sales for the years 2016, 2017, and 2018 given that sales in 2015 were 345000 and sales increase by 10% per annum.
2. **Formula used:**
The formula for compound growth is:
$$ S_n = S_0 \times (1 + r)^n $$
where $S_n$ is the sales after $n$ years, $S_0$ is the initial sales, and $r$ is the growth rate.
3. **Calculations for Task 1:**
- Sales in 2015: $S_0 = 345000$
- Growth rate: $r = 0.10$
- For 2016 ($n=1$):
$$ S_1 = 345000 \times (1 + 0.10)^1 = 345000 \times 1.10 = 379500 $$
- For 2017 ($n=2$):
$$ S_2 = 345000 \times (1.10)^2 = 345000 \times 1.21 = 417450 $$
- For 2018 ($n=3$):
$$ S_3 = 345000 \times (1.10)^3 = 345000 \times 1.331 = 459195 $$
4. **Task 2 problem statement:**
Predict future sales based on previous years' sales data:
2012: 27.9 million, 2013: 36.5 million, 2014: 51 million.
5. **Approach for Task 2:**
We can use linear extrapolation or compound growth rate.
6. **Calculate annual growth rate between 2012 and 2014:**
$$ r = \left(\frac{51}{27.9}\right)^{\frac{1}{2}} - 1 = (1.8287)^{0.5} - 1 = 1.3523 - 1 = 0.3523 $$
So approximately 35.23% growth per year.
7. **Forecast sales for 2015 using compound growth:**
$$ S_{2015} = 51 \times (1 + 0.3523) = 51 \times 1.3523 = 68.47 \text{ million} $$
8. **Alternatively, linear extrapolation:**
Calculate yearly increase:
$$ \text{Increase}_{2013-2012} = 36.5 - 27.9 = 8.6 $$
$$ \text{Increase}_{2014-2013} = 51 - 36.5 = 14.5 $$
Average increase:
$$ \frac{8.6 + 14.5}{2} = 11.55 \text{ million per year} $$
Forecast 2015 sales:
$$ 51 + 11.55 = 62.55 \text{ million} $$
**Final answers:**
- Task 1: Sales forecast for 2016 = 379500, 2017 = 417450, 2018 = 459195.
- Task 2: Forecast 2015 sales approximately 68.47 million (compound growth) or 62.55 million (linear extrapolation).